Sorry, that was a bit of a cheesy headline. But c’mon, it made you look, right? The Most Important Chart you need to see is at the end of this post but it may be best to start with some basic data facts first.
The Collingwood, Blue Mountain and area real estate market softened somewhat in June with 18% fewer sales for the month compared to June 2016. New listings for the month were also down 13% over a year ago contributing to the lower number of sales. There continues to be a shortage of options available for Buyers. Despite the lower number of sales, the dollar volume of the sales last month is up 3.25% over last June and is attributable to increasingly higher pricing in the local market.
Year-to-date, sales in our region are on par with this time last year but the dollar value of those sales is up YTD by a significant 26.9%. While sales under $350,000 have declined in numbers due to a lack of such properties being available, sales in all other categories are up by 35% or more. The largest increase has been seen in the price bands over the $1m mark with 72 sales YTD compared to just 26 at this time last year.
The chart below shows the changes in activity over the last year in the 6 key areas we serve and includes single family residential properties only.
Activity in the condo market shows what may potentially be an interesting trend. Sales in all markets were near identical to what they were in the same period last year. Only the two communities of Collingwood and Wasaga Beach saw any significant change in average sale prices and they were not small changes. My sense is that these sales in these areas are reflective of the trend of an increasing number of Buyers purchasing condo units as full-time homes and therefore attracted to the more urban centres such as Collingwood and Wasaga Beach. Having said that, there is large demand for 3 bedroom condos near the Village (just outside) but with virtually no listings in those areas all year, the demand cannot be reflected.
Now even if you have ignored everything else in this post, here is the most important chart for you to see. It shows the number of months of supply remaining at the end of each month and that is the key to understanding market conditions. One year ago at the end of June 2016, there were 6 ½ months of inventory available in the residential market. That means that if the pace of sales remained the same as it had in that month and, if there were no new listings, it would take over 6 months to sell everything available. Other than a blip in the traditionally low sales month of January, the supply has shrunk month over month. As you can see, we are currently at the lowest point we’ve seen in the last year with just over 2 months of inventory available.The demand for residential properties continues to be very strong and the supply continues to dwindle. The impending prospect of a change in interest rates is also spurring activity and of course, the ongoing desire for so many people to want to live in Southern Georgian Bay continues. The only thing that will change the current course would be a dramatic increase in the supply of properties for sale or, a steep decrease in the number of Buyers. We are not seeing either of those factors at play at the current time so present tight market conditions can be expected to continue.
Marg Scheben-Edey is a Broker with RE/MAX four seasons realty limited, Brokerage in beautiful Collingwood, ON. With three decades of experience, Marg is a leader in the local real estate marketplace and is ready to help guide both Buyers and Sellers in achieving their real estate goals. Email Marg